![]() In most economies, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress. ![]() On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. ![]() The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. ![]()
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